Analysis of Biden Protest Vote in Democratic Primaries: Young Voters, DINOs, and Latino Communities

The 2024 Democratic primary elections have revealed an interesting trend of protest votes against President Biden. According to recent data, an average of one in 10 Democratic voters have chosen “uncommitted” on the ballot where available, while around 12 percent have opted for a named candidate other than Biden. This adds up to a total of 13 percent of the Democratic primary vote going towards protest votes.

The upcoming primaries in Arizona are expected to shed light on Biden’s appeal, especially among Hispanic voters who make up a significant portion of the electorate in key areas like Phoenix and Tucson. In Arizona, where “uncommitted” is not an option, there is a campaign urging voters to protest Biden’s Middle East policies by casting their votes for Marianne Williamson.

In addition to Arizona, other states like Illinois, Ohio, and Kansas are also seeing protest votes against Biden. Pro-Palestinian groups in Illinois are encouraging voters to write in “Gaza” as a form of protest. The results of these primaries will also provide insights into the protest vote against former President Donald Trump, now that his major challenger, Nikki Haley, has dropped out of the race.

The protest vote against Biden this year is slightly higher than historical norms, with three distinct groups emerging as key protesters. Young voters and Muslim American communities in states like Michigan, Minnesota, Washington, and Massachusetts have shown a trend of voting against Biden, indicating a potential weakness among younger demographics.

Another group, known as Democrats in name only (DINOs), consists of conservative voters in states like North Carolina who are registered as Democrats but tend to vote Republican in presidential elections. These voters may be more inclined to cast protest votes in the Democratic primary.

Lastly, Latino communities, particularly in states like Texas, are also showing signs of protest against Biden. The shift in support among Latino voters, coupled with their relatively young population and increasing number of DINOs, highlights the complexity of protest votes in the Democratic primaries.

Overall, the protest vote against Biden in the 2024 Democratic primaries reflects a diverse range of concerns and sentiments among Democratic voters, pointing to potential challenges for the President as he looks towards the general election in November.