Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s Potential Impact on the 2024 Presidential Race
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s recent announcement that he is running for president as an independent has sparked concern among both Republicans and Democrats about the potential impact of his candidacy on the 2024 election.
Republicans and Democrats alike are worried that Kennedy’s presence in the race could siphon votes away from their respective candidates. A spokesperson for former President Donald Trump warned voters not to be deceived by anyone pretending to have conservative values, while a co-founder of the center-left group Third Way expressed concern that anything dividing the anti-Trump coalition would be detrimental.
Initial polls testing a hypothetical three-way race between Kennedy, Trump, and President Biden have shown that Kennedy’s presence slightly increases Trump’s margin over Biden. However, the shifts in support are small and within the margin of error, making it difficult to predict the actual impact of Kennedy’s candidacy.
Kennedy’s potential to hurt either party is still up for debate. While he may draw more support from Democrats initially due to his family name and past affiliation with the party, his controversial beliefs on issues like vaccines and gun control could alienate some Democratic voters. On the other hand, Kennedy is more popular among Republicans, which could also impact the GOP nominee.
Despite initial polls showing Kennedy garnering between 12 and 19 percent of the vote in a three-way race, history suggests that support for third-party candidates tends to decline as the election approaches. The net impact of Kennedy’s candidacy on the election is likely to be minimal, as most third-party candidates do not significantly affect the outcome of the race.
Ultimately, the 2024 election would have to be extremely close for Kennedy to have a decisive impact on the results. While his candidacy has raised concerns among both parties, the historical data suggests that third-party candidates rarely determine the outcome of presidential elections.
