The Impact of Third-Party Presidential Candidates on Elections
In the upcoming 2024 presidential race, third-party candidates may play a significant role in shaping the outcome. With more than 50 third parties appearing on state ballots last November, including the Reform, Libertarian, Socialist, Natural Law, and Green Parties, the potential for these candidates to impact the election is real.
However, history shows that third-party candidates face significant challenges in the U.S. political system. Since 1854, every U.S. president has been either a Republican or a Democrat, largely due to the winner-take-all nature of the Electoral College. This system makes it difficult for third-party candidates to amass the 270 electoral votes needed to win.
Despite these challenges, third-party candidates have come close to winning in the past. Theodore Roosevelt, running as a progressive Bull Moose party candidate in 1912, received 27% of the vote, splitting the Republican vote and enabling Democrat Woodrow Wilson to win. In more recent history, Ross Perot made a strong showing in 1992 with 19% of the popular vote.
The motivations behind third-party candidates vary, with many voters considering themselves political independents and seeking alternatives to the two-party system. While some third-party candidates have influenced major-party agendas, others have unintentionally impacted election outcomes. For example, Green Party nominee Ralph Nader’s votes in Florida in 2000 may have contributed to Al Gore’s loss and subsequent policy decisions by President George W. Bush.
Looking ahead to the 2024 race, the Greens have already selected activist Cornel West as their candidate, while the No Labels group of centrist lawmakers is considering launching a bipartisan “unity ticket.” Despite polls showing dissatisfaction with both major parties, analysts are skeptical of third-party candidates’ paths to victory.
In the end, the role of third-party candidates in the 2024 election remains uncertain. While they may not have a strong track record of winning, their presence in the race could have a significant impact on the outcome, potentially influencing the direction of U.S. politics for years to come.
